Create flood prediction service/geoprocessing task

Hi,
I'm a novice with ArcGIS having read a little about what geoprocessing tasks are all about and the models that can be built I wanted a bit of opinion and direction on the following. I have previous experience using SQL analysis services to create predictive models.

I have ArcGIS desktop with a layer which describes the relief of the land, and the properties which are on it. I also have historic rainfall data and historic incidents of flooding within a sql server database.

What I am thinking is possible is to create a predictive model which if trained with the above available datasets would be able to accept a rainfall forecast as an input and provide a prediction of where is likely to flood.

I have read a little about geoprocessing tasks but I'm sure its a very deep area, what I'd appreciate is some advice on:

1) If the above is possible.
2) how easy/hard it would be to create such a service to do the above (an estimate of time would be useful)
3) a pointer as to the best things to start learning about to be able to create this service.

Thanks in advance,
Dan